Model of Coliform Bacteria in Grand Traverse Bay
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Canale, Raymond P.
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SubjectGrand Traverse Bay; Boardman River; Michigan Water Resources Commission; Vol. 45, No. 11, November 1973
Statistical and preliminary deterministic models for total coliform bacteria in Grand Traverse Bay, Mich., have been developed previously. This work was reported in an earlier paper by Canale et al.1 This paper presented historical water quality data that clearly demonstrated seasonal as well as long-term changes in the bacterial quality of the waters in the west arm of the bay. These transient characteristics were studied with statistical techniques such as autoregression and multiple regression analysis. In addition to time variations, the data also portray a consistent spatial distribution of total coliform as observed at several beach sites on the southern shore of the west arm of the bay. The kinetic behavior of the death of total coliform bacteria in the bay was delineated by a correlation of experimental data collected by a number of different workers. The dieaway of coliform in the bay was approximated by using first-order kinetic expressions, with the reaction rate coefficient being relatively independent of illumination, pre-chlorination, and season of the year. The reaction rate coefficient was found to be dependent on incubation temperature, with lower temperatures favoring prolonged survival. Knowledge of the annual temperature cycle in the bay waters was used to calculate the reaction rate coefficient as a function of the time of year.