A Dynamic Model for Phytoplankton Production in Grand Traverse Bay

Abstract

The seasonal dynamics of dissolved and particulate phosphorus, particulate nitrogen and organic nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, silica, chlorophyll a and total zooplankton have been modeled in the lower part of the west arm of Grand Traverse Bay. The models are based on mass continuity equations and account for water movements, chemical and biological reactions and outside nutrient inputs. The model predictions compare favorably with data obtained during 50 separate Sea Grant field surveys. The model has been used to forecast the water quality in the Bay which will result from likely patterns of residential, commercial and industrial growth and varying degrees of phosphorus control in the Traverse City area. (Key words: Phytoplankton; seasonal dynamics; mass continuity equations; Grand Traverse Bay).